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July 15th, 2022
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The Odds Brothers Podcast | Episode 5
Money Line Mark and Post Time Shane explain “Futures” wagers in sports betting and how to utilize them in your bets. They tackle win totals wagers for the AFC in professional football and of course give you their best play for the weekend and the $5 five team parlay they like best.
Welcome to the Odds Brothers Podcast coming to you from the Betly Sportbook inside the new Southland Casino and Hotel, follow the odds brothers podcast on Apple podcasts and Spotify. Today's show is presented by Betly online sports. Download the Betly Arkansas app today. From Southland.betly.com or on the Apple App Store. Here are your hosts. Point Spread Shane And Moneyline Mark.
Ah, all right. Episode Five ladies and gentlemen also just found out it's almost like we're setting out a new record there, Mark Amazon podcast now on board, the odds brothers and Google podcast as well. So if you're listening to us on Spotify and Apple and one of those is or more your thing, you can find us now on those two platforms. Yeah, that's fantastic. Every time I hear that opening just makes me want to laugh. But you're not being a smart man. Both of them both of you. And glue sniffing glue. Absolutely. All right. Some news on the mobile app. For those that might be listening and live in the state of Tennessee. Let's just say that the Betly Sportsbook app is coming soon. Yeah. Fantastic. That's great news. That is great news. And in the meantime, if you're in Arkansas, and you still are listening to us and have not downloaded the app yet, tell them 250 reasons why they should mark $250 RISK FREE first bet is why so there's a minimum of a $10 bet you got to do in order to qualify and it has to be your first bet. Odds must be minus 250 or greater. If you meet all the minimum requirements, you will win one unlocked free bet equal to the amount of your first wager up to $250. However, that has to be a loser. In order to get the basically bet credit back Yep, in order to get it back. That's right. Yep, you bet you bet. $10 and you lose on your first bet and you meet the minimum requirements. You will get that $10 Back in a first in a free bet. Okay. Keep in mind read all the fine print there. The Free Bets probably only good for about a week or something like that. Right and time period. Not, forever. No, it's not forever. All right. Speaking of free bets, these weren't free. No, sir. But every week we do a nice little segment called Sweet Treats and Bad Beats. Sweet Treats where somebody decided that they were going to cash out on a big winner. Usually it's a parlay. And as I see here, this one will be as well Yeah. And the bad beats where somebody was just about ready to cash out and then just fell a little short. That hurts so much. All right. Well, we like to start with the good news first. So go ahead and give us our sweet treat for this week. Sweet Treats. All right, so today's sweet treat. We had a person bet $200 on a seven team parlay. This is here at the here at Southland at the retail store. They've had a seven team parlay. These are all MLB so you got the Dodgers over the Cubs money line. You'll see a theme here and I was at minus 250 then a Dodgers and the Cubs total runs under over 8 and that was at minus 115. Then they do the same thing with the Mariners over the Blue Jays moneyline plus 105 the over under total runs Mariners Blue Jays at seven and a half at minus 105 See the theme here? I do see the theme. Giants and Padres money line and minus 110 Same game the over under six and a half. I was even money. First five innings total runs over under the Yankees and Red Sox at five and minus 110. So they threw a little curveball there that last bet for their seven team pick. How much do you think that won? To $200? 7 teams seven teams and it looks like you only had one favorite? I was gonna say there. Well you mean one? Not so favorite, because all of a reminds us that Oh yeah, I'm sorry. Yeah, the one underdog, right one one underdog and even that was what plus 105 is yeah, you're talking barely Yes. Right. And underdog $200 seven team parlay. 50 And they have to for the money line. Oh, my goodness. All right, so 15 15 You're right $15,000 Now, we were talking the other day about tax tickets. Now that wasn't 300 to one. No, it was not not taxed, not taxed at $15,272 on a seven team parlay for 200 Sweet dollars. Oh, that's a great return. Now before we get to the bad beat real quick, as far as baseball goes, because I'm learning a little here so you can bet first inning right, just make a bet first thing, or the first five first five innings for the full game or more even beyond that you can do the full game and then you can do after. Remember what it says on the it's, you can bet the sixth inning up to the sixth end and to the seventh inning as well once the game is in play. Yep. Wow. Okay, so lots of different ways to bet in the middle of the game going on there keeping you interested in that four hour baseball game. All right, well, one guy walks away with $15,272 because he cashed all seven of his plays there. And that parlay Now for the bad beat. This was the one that's gonna hurt you, boy. No. Yeah, so for bad beats, we had a 700 person bet $700 Again, here at Southland at the retail side $700 On a sic team parlay all MLB okay. So you had the this both these tickets were on 710. Sorry, the Sweet Treats and this also this bad beat on 710. All right. So we had the Dodgers moneyline they won had the Braves money line. They won had the under nine on the Guardians Royals game and they won the Mariners money line. They also won Astros money line, and they won. However, the Yankees and Red Sox they had the Yankees money line. And the Red Sox smoked em six to 11. Oh, my. So I'm just looking at these. I'd imagine the Dodgers were a favorite. Because they Yeah, they are. Yep, they are a favorite. They usually are. Now the under nine runs in The Guardian Royals game. Okay, so that was probably a minus 110 Or somewhere around even money, I would guess. Mariners have been on a hot streak. They've been one of the hottest teams in baseball to get to. So they won. And the Astros are pretty dang good. And they won. So you thought well, let's go ahead and take another favorite right? The Yankees in a rivalry series no less? Yeah. Oh, wait. The Yankees Yankees are away? Yeah, they were at Boston. They're at Boston. And they lost 11 to six. Yeah. So by taking that Yankees game, what did they end up? What could they have won, but they didn't they could have won $14,000 off of us $700 ticket Oh man, the dangers of betting those rivalry games? Or just when you think all the favorites, right? Yeah. I don't have all the odds in front of me on what they were. But I would have to imagine almost everyone if not all of them other than the overunder was a favorite. They tried to string together for 700. Yes, they seen that total price. Maybe Maybe they're Yankees fan? They bet with their heart. I encourage it. they're asking you to predict the finish of something right Super Bowl winner, NBA championship winner, division winner, maybe how many wins a team will have over under right before the course of the year. So explain to us exactly how a futures wager works and where you might find those whether it be on the kiosk? Or how would you bet those at the till. So if you're at the kiosk, you're gonna go to the Select a game that you're trying to do or the sport you're trying to do a futures on. And you'll see a tab that will say future wagers. It'll actually just say Futures On The kiosk, and you'll want to hit futures and you'll see all the different varieties of what you can bet on in the future. Now the world championship game, and like you said, the over under total wins, whatever the whatever the sport may be, And then this ticket basically sits live for what five months, it will sit live and at least right, because at least you might be eliminated before you get out of exam. Right? If you pick a team that don't make the playoffs, but the interesting thing that I like about futures wagers, it's one of the few things where I think you can take stabs at multiple teams, at the odds that you get. So I mean, we'll we'll talk a little bit about it today. In the AFC we're going to, we're going to do some win prediction totals per team. All right, but I don't have the Super Bowl win odds in front of me, but we can get them let's say that the most favorite team to win the Super Bowl. And I don't know if this is true as of right now, but usually you're talking about the Rams Tampa Bay Buccaneers is now you're probably getting plus 400 plus 350 Odds right now, if you're going to bet that team to win the Super Bowl, I would guess somewhere in there. That's probably the low end. Right. Right. And then if you want with the Washington commanders on the high end things you're probably getting plus 10,000 20,000. Something incredible, because the odds for them to win it are pretty much zero, I think but lightning strikes various places. Sometimes you you got some pulled up. I do. Yeah. So what we got and that right now the favorite is Buffalo Bills at plus 600. That's the favorite. That's the favorite. Yep. So just to remind everybody $100 on the bills right now to win the Super Bowl will get you 700 Basically, right. So - that's right. Yep. So at six to one odds, you could take Buffalo and let's say what's the next one? Is the Tampa Bay or is it Tampa Bay? All right, Tampa Bay? What are they plus? 700? Plus 700? Yep. So literally, you could take probably the top three plays $100 on each of those when you'll still make a profit. Like if you're looking for the Rams, their top four and their plus 1000. 1000. Yeah, that's not a bad bet. That's not a bad bet. I mean, if because they seem to reload. I mean, they've got a lot of the returning guys from the last year squad now. You know, back to back Super Bowl champions are very tough to do. So that's probably why you see, plus 1000 What's cowboys? I know you got that smirk. No, no, no smirk isn't for that, if you wanted, like, you know, the go for the Holy Grail, like you were talking about? Yeah. And the Atlanta Falcons are plus 15,000. Words on the bunch. That's not the worst bus next to the worst. Alright. What's the worst Detroit? No, the Houston Texans? Oh, yes. plus 20,000 plus 20,000. That's right. Yeah. All right. So you could put as little as $1 on that. That's right. And if lightning struck somewhere, you could win 20,000 All not only lightning struck somewhere struck somewhere. 20 times in a row, like same spot. I would think for the Houston Texans. Yeah. All right. Well, that's kind of neat. So the futures wagers are something you should look into. You can they're on the app, they're on the tills, or at the retails, we probably don't call it Internet kiosks. Yet on the app, the app is super simple as well, just like the kiosk, you find NFL, and there's a tab that says futures. Right. And so those things don't get settled till the end of the year. Even. Right, you know, so if you do a division winner, yeah. And yes, they've got it locked, but they haven't all the division isn't completed, or all the regular season games aren't done right, you're gonna have to wait until they settle that entire division. Before you can do it. Make sure the season gets completed that's right, just because the sports ESPN and those are saying, hey, they locked the division they locked the division, unfortunately, got to wait till you know all the regular seasons are completed before that ticket can be cashed. Well, that's cool. I you know, I don't know what the percentage per se, if we ever looked of how much futures wages are actually done in relative to the overall I know, they're one timers in the last over months. But these odds will change during the course of the season. And you can bet it multiple times at different price points. Oh, yeah. Yeah. So it's not that you can just bet at once and then that's it. You can't bounce your team again. You can bet it the odds go up during the season. Maybe you really like em, even though the odds get juiced down a little more, you still like plus 500 You still like plus 400 and you just know that it's good to get different tickets. It's good to because you know, the middle of season injuries can happen. So if you had your hopes set on Buffalo Bills and something happens to the quarterback, yeah, you know that that's a that's a team changer. Right there, or if you have a superstar running back, something happens to that running back and have no superstar backup, you know, then you can go and say, you know, I guess that's that tickets you think it's going to be loser not going to bet another one. Odds are constantly changing when the games are going on. So yeah, week by week, week by week. That's right. No good deal. Well, let's take our shot at some futures wagers ourselves here. You know, I like this because by the time that this comes round, everybody will have forgotten what I picked. Except me because I'm gonna keep this paper. So what we're doing here is we're gonna give you an idea of what futures wagers look like we're gonna pick the over under on win totals for teams in the AFC in the National Football League. All right, so what was going to start with the AFC East last year Buffalo just give you a recap won the Division at 11 and six, New England oddly enough, I thought it was a surprise finishing second at 10 and seven, the Dolphins after losing like I think seven in a row to start the year then they won seven. Yeah. Something like that was like two weird win streaks back to back or losing streak of massive proportion followed by a winning streak of massive proportion. And they ended at nine and eight. And then the Jets going 13. I think the surprise for me was the Dolphins were above 500. Especially the way they started. Yeah, it was either 0 and 6 or 0 and 7, something like that. It's crazy. All right, it was Dolphinesque. So let's give you an idea what they're thinking this year. For Buffalo. Like you said they won 11 games last year right now. And this could change. But right now the projected totals 11 and a half over or under if you'd like em to be less than 11 are basically 11 wins or less. The under is actually at minus 40. So there are a lot of people talking like Buffalo won't be as good as last year's record shows. And if you think they'll win 12 or more, you get plus 110. I think those Buffalo folks, I think is minus 140. Must be New England fans. They might be in before we just picked each team. Let's go down there. New England. We said they won 10. Last year, they're at eight and a half. If you'd like over eight and a half or basically nine wins or more, you're getting minus 120. So a lot of people are thinking right now that the win more than eight and a half they did last year, if you think they'll win eight or less, it's minus 105. Dolphins are eight and a half as well. Well, they won nine so they're bad. I guess even with Tyreek Hill, they think they're gonna be just about as good as they were last year. But if you like under that total, it's plus 115. So if you think there'll be worse, if you think they'll go over that. Nine win total nine or more. It's minus 140. So for some reason, even though they got the same QB two, they did get Tyreek Hill. There's a ton of money right now on the over nine. And then of course, the Jets. Well, they're only expected they actually expect them to improve it's five and a half. So six wins or more get you minus 175. For some reason, they think the Jets are gonna be at least two wins better than last year. And if you'd like to under that total 140 you get plus 140. Yeah, take it team by team who you like, all right, team by team on ticket. I like them to Buffalo I like going over that plus 110 and 11 and a half. I think they'll win more games. I think Buffalo's doing a tremendous job of improving what they have. And they were pretty darn good last year. So I see their defense getting even better. I think their offensive line is having some improvements. I don't know how much they need help on it. But I think they'll go to 12 games. Okay. That's why I chose the over New England Patriots. I did the over as well. Yeah, minus 120. I don't even if they do the same 10 You're not. They're still over the eight and a half that they're falling for right now. You could even lose a game there. Yeah, yep. Miami Dolphins. I don't think they'll improve. I don't care who they have. Like they're going under at plus 115. And then you go to the Jets. And I do think that they will pick up those games that Miami loses. So that's why I went over at minus 175. I do think they'll get to six. I'm not saying they're gonna get to seven or eight. I think they'll get to six. So this division, I'm with ya Buffalo at least locked up. What they had last year that did really well came within an overtime drive of Kansas City. I mean yeah, to go into the Super Bowl yeah they're pretty good. Pretty good. I don't see it changing this year. Well I don't see it either but I that 11 and a half so I'm going to go under and say they win the same amount of games at 11 No, I know it's minus one but I don't think it's going to be 10 but I think they repeat 11 and 6 record as they do did last year. New England I don't see how they got any better I know you went over eight and a half Yep. I think that game they won in Buffalo when it was a blizzard room short of snow but it was 40 mile an hour winds and I forget 27 passing yards and unbeaten Buffalo on I just don't see where they got any better now their quarterback might be but I'm with you as far as they had 10 to add 10 wins last year so they can lose one. I'm gonna go. I'm gonna go under. All right, I'm gonna go under on that one. So we're polar opposites there right now. The Miami Dolphins. I agree with the I'm going to take the under plus 115 I think they actually go opposite. I think they go 8 and 9 this year. But I don't think it'll be as dramatic as losing seven wind and seven coming down. I think they'll oscillate back and forth between wins and losses and get there and the Jets I think they win five. Oh, well, the lines five and a half. I know. So I'm gonna go under there too woooo. So basically, I'm going under all those win totals. That's how I'm shaping it up. You mixed it up a little I'm going under. Yeah, I did three overs and an under. See how that works for you. I think it draws together a little better. But in the middle. All right. AFC North Division next Cincinnati. Ah, they ended up making your Super Bowl there. 10 and 7 was the regular season record. Pittsburgh somehow pulled something out they did tie Detroit ended up making the playoffs. They went nine seven and one Cleveland Browns eight nine type of Baltimore who just fell apart last year, tons of injuries everywhere, especially running backs. And they finished in 8 and 9 as well. This year. What are they thinking? Well, Cincinnati they won 10 Last year nine and a half. So basically they're right at the same level. Do you think they'll win more than that or less? Pittsburgh seven and a half. So without Ben Roethlisberger and I guess you got Mitch Trubisky? And I don't know who else to go. Oh, who was their backup last year? Beaker. not Mayfield Beaker from the puppet. Oh, from now? Yeah, no, yeah. I can't think of his name right now. But seven and a half. Now, Cleveland's not even got odds right now. And we'll explain that in a minute on why that would be. And then the Baltimore Ravens took some of their injuries into account but not as much as they thought they went eight last year. They have them at nine and a half this year. So let's go Cincinnati. Bengals first 10 and 7, nine and a half is the wind total. If you like over or under? It's the same as minus 115. Meaning that's probably the right number right now. Yeah, I went over on them. You went over you think they went 11? Yep. All right. reason I say that, you know, they get those divisional games. And I think they're just going to dominate this division this year. You might be right, because when we get down to the other teams other than maybe Baltimore, we'll talk Pittsburgh next and say finish second. No. Ben Roethlisberger. Not that he was still there last year, but that's a lot of experience. Yes, in the offense, a leader, a leader? Yep. Nine to seven or one they think seven a half. So they're dropping and basically two wins. Where are you at on that one minus 110? Either way, so that I know they dropped in two and a half? I don't think they dropped them enough. So I went under minus 110. All right, he thinks so they had less than so basically seven or under right. All right now Cleveland The reason there's no odds on em right now. Nobody knows about Deshaun Watson. He probably will be suspended. But nobody knows if it's the whole year six games, four games or what? Baker Mayfield just got traded. So the backup situation isn't even as good. He went to Carolina. Yeah. So right now there's no firm information for the bookmakers to really make an accurate prediction. You might find a total somewhere. Yeah, the before all that happened with Baker Mayfield, they were at the odds were at 170 over and the game wins were at nine and a half and the under odds were minus 115. So they had them at nine and a half before Baker was traded. Yep. Yep. So let's just say it's that number nine and a half. No one really little. But where would you take a stab at it right now? I'd go under, I would go under too. If there was yeah, whatever the odds are under now for some reason. It was six and we still had as much information as today. I might take a shot that they win at least six and in that division with Pittsburgh being down? Yes. Yeah, I'd have to I mean, their quarterbacks not much. Didn't have to go five and a half or four Well, that's why I think cinci's he's gonna be higher Yeah, I do nine and a half I think cinci probably wins that division at 11 to 12 wins so I like you're over there even minus 115 Steelers. They always seem to do better than people think even with backup quarterbacks remember when two years ago they played with a backup pretty much all their duck collar and all that and then they end up winning eight games with basically two backup QBa last year. They played Dallas that many times in a row I think yeah. I'm actually gonna go barely over I think they get eight wins this year. Just because they get to play Cleveland twice. And then if you look I believe they get to play Detroit again. So I mean, I'm gonna I'm gonna take a chance there and I'm gonna say even though it's minus 10 one that I think they win eight which will put me technically over I don't know what the I have no idea what they would open up at. I don't either and somewhere along the line when the season starts you're gonna probably have to put a total out. Yeah. So we'll revisit that on the on the Cleveland Browns when it comes time. All right, AFC South time, Tennessee won last year 12 And 5. Miss Derrick Henry for about a month and a half to end that part of the season. The Colts were 9 and 8 finish second and somehow lost to Jacksonville when they could tie it up a playoff spot for like three weeks in a row and they failed to do it. And that's crazy. And then of course, you got Houston at four and 13 in Jacksonville three and 14. So two out of the three worst teams in the league were in the same division the AFC South last year this year. Wow. I know they lost AJ Brown and everything but they got Tennessee at nine and a half wins. And they got the Colts at nine and a half wins which is basically where they finished last year 10 Tennessee How about Houston Texas. They're four and a half so they expect them to be about the same and then somehow Jacksonville new coach they got rid of Urban Meyer they made I don't think the best moves in free agency and paid a lot of money to Christian Kirk but they got a six and a half win total. So they bumped them up basically four wins from last year. Tennessee Titans nine and a half if you like more than nine so 10 or more it's plus 115. If you think they're under that minus 140. Who do you got? Well, I think everybody here that comes to Southland should bet with their heart and keep betting those Tennessee Titans but I don't I would go under on the Tennessee Titans. It's it's tough because I think Indy actually got better. So you went under, right. So that's minus 141. All right. And do you think Indy better Well, I went under them as well. You went under so you think they don't even win nine games? I think they might win nine. So that would just be under said just be under since it's nine and a half. All right. Matt Ryan to me every day better than Carson Wentz. I agree. Alright, Houston, Houston. Four and a half. I went over only because I think they'll get to five. I'm not saying I'm not saying they're gonna get the six or seven but I think they'll get five. All right, and Jacksonville's big jump to six and a half. So basically seven wins this year you buying that? No, no. I went under? I don't know. I don't know who who thought six and a half is a good idea. But I went under I don't know what they're I don't see what they're seeing. And it's minus 130. So yeah, I mean, everybody's kind of leaning that way. So it makes you wonder. Everybody thinks it's under. Yeah. I don't know. Tennessee. I agree. I went under I don't I just don't see losing what they did quarterback situation didn't change. I think the division overall got at least a little better than last year. I'm not saying a ton. I still think they win the division again. But I went under colts, I went over I think they get right to 10 wins. And I know that's minus 145. But I think Matt Ryan is I mean you got Jonathan Taylor one of the best running backs in football, if they give him the ball are young and excited. Welcome to the odds brothers Podcast coming to you from the bedroom sportbook. Inside the new South Bank, casino and hotel, follow the odds brothers podcast on Apple podcast and Spotify. Today's show is presented by that link online sports book. Download the Arkansas recap today. From South Bend up betley.com For from the Apple App Store. Your host flicks red Shane Krishna from Blue. Monday I'm on I'm not a smart man Let's go. 10 grand. Wow, you're close. But you're a little low. Still low still. Oh, man. I'm $100 bet. Well, yeah, but I'm under estimating, like all these favorites. Favorites. Wasn't like they went out on a limb here and took like, I don't know. Arizona Diamondbacks or something straight up, right. And they even had a Yeah, that's a lot of money. And matter of fact, I think you got to do one for every 10 grand there was so there's half a one. Yeah, keep that in mind when you know Dallas Cowboys start playing and what else we have around and we got to see if Tennessee Titan fans around here. Yeah. So they'll they'll play him no matter what. You'll get some St. Fans. And you got a lot of Pittsburgh fans in this area as well. Oddly enough, oddly enough. All right. Well, sorry for the bad beat there. Yeah, we appreciate it. Well, and you know, it probably would have been worse if it was like a walk off. That the Red Sox jacked over the fence. It would have been Yeah, would have made it a little more tasty. That's like, that's right. That would have made you throw up a little in your mouth, I guess. All right, we like to do a educational segment just about every week this week on how to be a sports wise guy. We're going to talk futures wagers a futures wager. Just about every major sport, I think has one and the easiest way to explain it is that usually before the season starts, you We'll take NFL because that's the most popular. So if you wanted a wager on event later on in the year, that would be a future of future bet you could even technically, a future bet could be week three of the NFL. And that's technically a future bet. As of right now, as of right now, but we're talking more of, you're talking more like season wins. Yeah, who's gonna be the MVP that at the end of the season, you know, of course, the big game who's going to win that? So? So if you wanted to bet a who's gonna win the Super Bowl this year? Right, the NFL championship game there? You could do that. Now. You can do it now. Yep. On any of the teams. Yeah, of course, obviously. Some are better odds than Huh? Okay, you go. There's my philosophize, so you better tear that apart. Well, so here's what generally happens. And in this division notwithstanding, teams that win their division generally end up playing division winners the next year of you know, other divisions in the NFL, so in theory, their schedules considered tougher than others. Ones that finish in the basement sometimes there they get the face other basement dwellers from the year before as part of their rotation and tend to not do as bad unless you're Detroit, right? For some reason can't seem to get much more than three or four wins a year for I don't know how long now. Half I might have to do a coin flip at that point really? Really in the basement yeah I do I think they struggle this year. All right I think you see those brown paper bags come back out. And Baltimore basically 10 wins or more is minus 140 and nine wins or losses plus 115. Where do you stand there? I went under you went under I went under Yep, I sure did. Oh, all right ravens Now more experienced wide receiving corps and one of the best offensive lines in football to protect him because he can't move. Now I was gonna say, Atlanta. Yep, he's got it better in Indianapolis. So I do like even though you're not getting good juice here minus 145. I'm taking over, but I think it's 10 or 11. At most. Houston. I don't see it. But it is four and a half with you. I think they went right at five. That was what I wrote down here. Five in Jacksonville. I don't think they get the six and a half. But I do think they get the six. So I'm going under with you. I do think they went three more games last year because how can you be that bad twice on the show Detroit. -
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