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July 22nd, 2022

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The Odds Brothers Podcast | Episode 6

Point Spread Shane and Money Line Mark dive deep into season win total predictions for the NFC in pro football while discussing why lines move in sports betting. Plus, they give you their best bet of the week and their $5 five-team parlay special.

Transcript

Welcome to the Odds Brothers Podcast coming to you from the Betly Sportbook inside the new Southland Casino and Hotel, follow the Odds Brothers podcast on Apple podcasts and Spotify. Today's show is presented by Betly online sportsbook. Download the Betly Arkansas app today. From Southland.betly.com or on the Apple App Store. Here are your hosts. Point Spread Shane And Money Line Mark.

Shane

doesn't get old does it?

Mark

It does not. I love it. I love it.

Shane

All right. Welcome to the odds brothers, everybody. Episode Six.

Mark

Hot squelching day.

Shane

It is July 22. Dead in the middle of summer.

Mark

It's hot like our picks.

Shane

Or at least one of us anyway. Yes. All right. Well, welcome everybody. Once again, we want to add that we are now on Amazon podcast and Google podcast if you choose that one of those are better than what you're currently listening to us on, which would be Apple or Spotify. Latest on that mobile app Marcellus, keep in mind, Tennessee is coming soon. And when it does, we'll break the news to you right here on the show. But in the meantime, if you live in Arkansas, and like to download the Betly Arkansas sportsbook app, we've got a little bit of a nice housewarming gift for you tell them what it is.

Mark

That's right. So you can get a $250 risk free first bet. If you've never been on the app before, and you want to bet for the first time, make that deposit make your first bet there must be a minimum of a $10 bet. And the odds must be minus 250 or greater. If you meet all the minimum requirements, and you lose, you will win one unlocked free bet equal to the amount of your first wager up to $250.

Shane

Sounds like a deal to me.

Mark

That's right. You can't come out a loser really? If you're your first bet anyway.

Shane

Right. We'll give it to you back.

Mark

That's right.

Shane

Up to 250.

Mark

Up to 250.

Shane

So you could bet 10 You bet. 25.

Mark

Yeah. And you get you odds have to be minus 250.

Shane

But if you bet 300. We're only gonna give you 250.

Mark

That's right.

Shane

All right. So no sneaking it out the other door.

Mark

That's right. You can't go I want to bet 10 grand, and I want it all by it because I lost. I bet the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl.

Shane

Won't have to hear that for a little while anyway. It'll take a bit. All right, we've got a lot to get to today. Last week, if you listen to the show, we did our predictions on the AFC version side of the National Football League, the over unders on their win totals for the year this week, we'll do the NFC. And give me your thoughts on that. Keep in mind and we'll say this. We're going to do this a couple of times we're going to do obviously right now. And last week. Once we get through the preseason games, we'll do it again.

Mark

Oh, what?

Mark

That's because we're going to know if there's any injuries, the signings because one of the big things I'm keeping an eye on is where Jimmy Garoppolo might end up. It won't be San Francisco. But I think it's going to play itself out until the end of preseason before we find out where he lands. That's just my gut.

Mark

You don't think he's going back to San Fran.

Shane

I do not. I think that they put all that capital in the tree. Trade Lance.

Mark

Yeah.

Shane

They don't need somebody looking over your shoulder and I think come hell or high water. San Francisco is gonna go up or down with that boat right now. I mean, you. I think you chose the second pick of the draft and actually moved up to get him.

Mark

I think they should keep on they they should work a deal out with Garoppolo.

Shane

Well, and don't be surprised like Seattle.

Mark

Yeah, that's true.

Shane

They might be interested. Houston, Texas, even though I don't know that he'd be interested. But there's a couple of landing spots. You could go maybe even Chicago Bears?

Mark

Yeah, I will say it's not a bad idea. To recap. I guess we'll go back and see if anything changed.

Shane

Right.

Mark

From our early picks to preseason. Yeah.

Shane

Because the lions, it'll be interesting to see what the lions are too. Like we do have a movement from last week to this week. And we'll get to that too in the NFC East which is odd enough.

Mark

Yeah.

Shane

And we'll explain how that happens. Even though we won't have a wiseguy segment this show.

Mark

Okay.

Shane

Before we get to it, it's time to do and this is gonna be great. We got our sweet treats and our bad beats today.One of the bad beats is going to be very, very exciting.

Mark

Oh yeah, it's great.

Shane

So who's the sweet treat for the week?

Mark

So sweet treats for this week, I guess here retail bet $500 on the 10 team parlay on major league baseball. And he picked the he or she picked Yankees money line Mets money line Dodgers money line Cardinals money line Mets to win that doubleheader the second game money line Blue Jays money line Mariners money line Braves money line Astros money line and then the Oilers run line at plus one and a half.

Shane

You mean Orioles?

Mark

Are you get what I say Oilers? Oh yeah no Oilers

Shane

historical games that's kinda interesting.

Mark

Definitely you know when they were the Houston Oilers there's might been better playing baseball

Shane

Maybe.

Mark

Anyway that 10 Team ticket all 10 for $500

Shane

And all but one was money line.

Mark

All but one was money line Yep.

Shane

That's interesting.

Mark

That's right how much you think it paid $500.

Shane

Yeah, no, I've been under ball on this for so long $50,000.

Mark

Now you went the other you went the extreme.

Shane

I went to the other extreme.

Mark

Yeah, yeah. You're cold because you went the wrong way.

Shane

Half of it.

Mark

Yeah.

Shane

25.

Mark

That's close. 28,900. So basically $29,000

Shane

$29,000 off 500 bucks. 10 team parlay?

Mark

That's right. That was the day that most of the in the money lines, the Favorites one. Baseball games that week.

Shane

So that wasn't not only for this lucky person. I guess you could say won $29,000 I'm gonna also get since favorites won a lot of those games that it was not a really great day for us sportsbook, folks.

Mark

Yeah, that's right. sportsbook sports books in general did not favor well that day.

Shane

All right. So for the person that won the 29 Grand right.

Mark

Yeah, there it is.

Shane

29,000 And we said once for basically every 10,000 and we'll round up. There you go. sportsbooks folks. Yeah, took the bath.

Mark

That's us.

Shane

All right. Is that the only sweet treat we got?

Mark

That's the only sweet treat that we've got.

Shane

All right now I've been waiting for this. I was hoping that was the only sweet treat because the bed beat is a personal love story here. Let's go ahead and hear it.

Mark

You should see him he's over here dancing and like he can't wait for this story to be told.

Shane

I can't really.

Mark

Alright, so for bed beats. We're just going through with what happened here. So this person had a $5 five team parlay that had to pay a minimum of $200 Does sound familiar?

Shane

Sounds familiar.

Mark

Huh? I wonder where that comes. Oh, that's right. That's our thing, huh?

Shane

Yep.

Mark

So last week, my beat. It's basically my $5 parlay of the week. That is part of this bad beat. What is this bad beat? It's not part of it. It is the bad beat. I took the Braves run line at minus one and a half. They won and took the blue the Blue Jays run line at minus two and a half. They won. Cardinals run line minus one and a half they won. Rockies run line minus one and a half. And they won held on four for four.

Shane

Four for four and not just favorites money lines. You were taking run line.

Mark

and take and run lines. Yep.

Shane

All right.

Mark

Four for four. And then I had the Yankees run line at minus one and a half, and they lost.

Shane

But not only did they lose.

Mark

They lost in extra innings.

Shane

Oh. No. Yeah! So I know you had to know all the details of this. So how did they lose in those extra innings?

Mark

I don't know the details I just know the score was I lost.

Shane

And who did they play?

Mark

I believe the Red Sox.

Shane

You're right.

Mark

Yeah. Should never go against the Sox and I did.

Shane

Well, yeah. Well, the Yankees were at home.

Mark

No, yeah, that's exactly why it took him. Yeah.

Shane

Oh, my goodness. So not only did your firt and it would have been the first time a $5 parlay hit on the show. Me and you.

Mark

And it would have paid $233.

Shane

And you would've won team that has the best record in the American League to boot at home.

Mark

At home.

Shane

Against our tribal that's right and an extra innings a dump trucked ya.

Mark

Yeah, that's right.

Shane

So tell everybody at home what that paid.

Mark

Zero.

Shane

That's right. Well, that is a yeoman's work though. Because I think that's closest we have been.

Mark

That is, the closest.

Shane

One of us even hitting this $5 parlay.

Mark

That's right.

Shane

I can't wait for the Big Six coming up in football season.

Mark

Ohh boy, please.

Shane

All right. So that is your sweet treats and bad beats.

Mark

Yeah, that's it. That's great.

Shane

For this show. Oh, man, that bad beat. I'm gonna I'm gonna listen to that over and over on the car home. I wonder who that guy was? Yeah.

Mark

Doing a happy dance.

Shane

That's right. Because otherwise, I would have been hearing about how you hit it.

Mark

You would have.

Shane

200 and some dollars.

Mark

You'd hear it this week, next week, following week.

Shane

Now Alright, so with that out of the way, let's go ahead and go to the NFC version of the let's see how we feel about teams going over or under the Run line or a run line. Now I got run line of games one for the season coming up in the NFL. And this was interesting because I did this both the NFC and the AFC at the same time when I populated what the current line was for the games won, and then what the over odds were of that number and the under odds, and we had quite a few changes actually show up most of it in just terms of what the odds were. And we'll go through this real quick. It's not really a wiseguy segment, but it'll fit right in here. So let's jump in NFC East, we'll get that out of the way. Dallas last year won the Division 12 and five pretty comfortably. Eagles came in second nine and eight, Washington commanders at seven and 10, and the Giants at four and 13. So that was last year's records. This year, the over under line for game one, the cowboys were 10 and a half and are still. Now the Philadelphia Eagles last week, when I did the sheet was eight and a half, they're now up to nine and a half. And we'll explain that in a minute on what went down in order to cause what we call a line shift. And then both Washington and the Giants have a seven and a half games won line for this upcoming season. So first of all Dallas Cowboys. Last week, they were minus 110. Either way, whether you thought they'd win 11 games or somewhere 10 or less. Last, this week, it's minus 105. If you think they'll be 11 Win team or better. So the odds actually improved in your favor, while the under odds also improved from minus 115 to minus 110. So that's pretty interesting, the line did not move, the overall odds got a little worse. But the under odds got a little better. So what that tells you is, is that people were starting to load up a little bit more on the over that number, meaning 11 wins, or more than they were the under. So the odds shift in order to try to entice some action back on the other side.

Mark

Right.

Shane

All right. Now, this is the interesting one, the Eagles last week, were eight and a half for their games, one over and under, they got up a full game, basically nine and a half now.

Mark

Yeah.

Shane

Now before they did that eight and a half. Everybody must have thought that was a bad line from a gamblers perspective, because they were minus 190. To win nine games basically or more. And they were plus 155. To go under. So they were enticing you to please take the under.

Mark

Yeah.

Shane

Because we got a lot of action on the over, we're gonna give you less return. If you take the over and people were still hitting the over. So they moved the lineup a game. And now for nine and a half. It's minus 125. Now just to go over. So the odds are better than they were at eight and a half. And then the if you think they're gonna win over nine and a half, now you actually get plus one or sorry, minus 110, and so on fifty-five. So somewhere along the line, they're trying to figure out this as a nine or 10 Win team.

Mark

That's right.

Shane

All right, so we'll roll through them now. The Washington team minus 130, if you think they'll win over seven games, so if it's under seven or less, it's 110 On the positive side, and then the Giants, if you think they'll go over basically ones or more, it's one plus 120 and unders minus 145. So there's quite a bit more money on them not winning over seven games, but not a lot of juice to go over. So they're still trying to figure that out.

Mark

That's right. And these odds will change as we get closer and closer into the season. And as you progress through the season, because these are one of these bets that you can make all the way up until the final season game is over.

Shane

Right. And we'll revisit both the AFC and NFC once the preseason is over and see how much these lines shift based on if anybody got injured. Maybe where Jimmy Garoppolo went. Because he's on the trade block. You know, Deshaun Watson exactly where he ends up in the whether he's going to be suspended a whole year six games, whatever, we might finally get a Cleveland line to look at. And stuff like so we'll see how much those have moved in a month.

Mark

I don't think the Cleveland lines necessary but okay.

Shane

Yeah, you're going under no matter what.

Mark

Under no matter what.

Shane

Unless it's zero and then you might go over.

Mark

That's right.

Shane

I say might. All right. Take these teams one at a time. The Dallas Cowboys. Do you think they went 11 or less than 11?

Mark

I think they went less than 11. What do you think about that?

Shane

Well, yeah.

Mark

That's right.

Shane

I'll do the spoiler alert. I'm with you.

Mark

Wow. I can't believe that from diehard Cowboys fan now.

Shane

All right. So the well, I guess we'll just go side by side.

Mark

Okay.

Shane

Just to make it I also went under I think they actually win 10 games on the on the dot.

Mark

Yeah, I went nine.

Shane

Okay, so we're in the same neighborhood, but Eagles got better. Yeah, I can't say Washington got better. The Giants just have to default get a little better. I'm not saying they're gonna win the division, but Amari Cooper, I'm not gonna say it's the biggest loss in the world, but I think it is a little bit and we'll see how some of these rookie guys do that they drafted James Washington comes over from the Steelers to be the slot guy, probably a slot receiver. We'll see how that integrates. No idea how good Zeke What kind of shape what kind of miles got left in the tank? So 12 and five last year now they get a little tougher schedule being a division winner. That's where I came up with the 10 wins.

Mark

Yeah, I think they do. I don't think they'll get to 12.

Shane

Now, I will tell you this, I would have went the other way. Probably I would have took the juice anyway at minus 190. But I'll go ahead and give my pick first on the Eagles. I think they went more than basically now nine games 10 games.

Mark

I think they win 10.

Shane

I think it comes down. And you probably can tell me remember not that long ago, like for two or three seasons straight. It came down the last game of the year for the Cowboys that had to win to win the division get in the playoffs. Otherwise, they went home that nine and seven, eight and eight crap that they did for many years. Eagles were part of that. Yeah, I think this year is another one of those where it comes down to near the end of the week. One of these teams to me is going to be 10 and seven, the other is going to be nine and eight.

Mark

Yes, that's right. That's right.

Shane

So but I didn't take the over because I hedge my bet a little bit I think under for Dallas at 10 and a half means that it could be nine wins and eight.

Mark

Yes, that's right.

Shane

I still win that one.

Mark

And I said nine.

Shane

Yep. And I think Eagles win 10. So I'm going over nine and a half.

Mark

And that's what I had too I went over as well. And and same type of thing. I agree with you where the Dallas and Philadelphia there they are. I know it used to be Washington and Dallas as far as the rivalries go. That still is a tough rivalry. But the Philadelphia Eagles play Dallas very well. Usually not in Dallas favor. So

Shane

Especially at Lincoln Financial Field for some reason.

Mark

So I'm gonna that's why I went with if I had Dallas at nine, I had to go with Philly going 10.

Shane

But quick note, if you're out there, Dave Wolf, you did get swept last year by the Cowboys. Yeah, both places. All right.

Mark

And they're still not going to the Super Bowl. Probably not.

Shane

Washington commanders, commanders minus 130. If you think the winning games are more or plus 110, if it's seven or less, where are you at?

Mark

I'm at going under, I think they'll get right at the same record they had this year or last year seven and 10. Same record.

Shane

Did it bleed through that I do a carbon copy on my picks here? It looks like because we're on the same boat. I say same thing. Seven wins.

Mark

Seven wins.

Shane

Yeah, I don't think Carson Wentz made him that much better.

Mark

No, I don't either.

Shane

So I mean, ask Indianapolis. Alright, and finally the New York Giants the G men they have the same over under total at seven and a half. So winning eight games more, you get plus 120. If you think they do not win. Seven games are actually eight games. I mean, it's minus 145. So a lot of money on the under they're not going to get near that marker to hit that mark. What do you say Mark?

Mark

Yeah, I mean, I hate the odds at minus 145. But I do go under now. I think they'll win six. I think they will improve a little bit from their record from last year. But it's still under that seven and a half. I don't see them winning eight games.

Shane

I don't either. Now, I know they made some additions to the offensive line and all that. defenses. Okay, but I'm with you. I don't I don't see them still on the Dallas and Philly Eagles level. So that's four losses right there.

Mark

Yeah, I see that in there's a good chance that might move. You know, maybe they keep hammering that under.

Shane

Yep.

Mark

Might do the same thing they did to Philadelphia.

Shane

Yep. So they might even lower the games one to six and a half or something and try to entice the over on that part.

Mark

That's right. Mostly tricky. Tricky.

Shane

All right. NFC North, the Green Bay Packers last year ran away. 13 and four with the division, Minnesota Vikings eight and nine. The bears were six and 11. Under that Justin fields, rookie tryout and then Detroit Lions 3-13-1. But I'll tell you, especially near the end, a lot of those losses were within three four points heartbreaking field goal against the rams and their former QB that they lost the tie against the Steelers that they probably should have won four times over.

Mark

Yeah.

Shane

Instead of the tie.

Mark

Yeah.

Shane

So I don't know how much better you could say they got but they should play hard. So I think that amounts to something now.

Mark

Bless your heart.

Shane

Win totals? No. Davante Adams. Okay, so 11 and a half, Green Bay winning 12 or more games is plus 110. So they actually are enticing you to say go over. And if you think they win 11 games unless it's minus 140 What do you think Mark?

Mark

I'm right that I think though went well, but I'm gonna go with the under. I do believe this is Aaron's last year. It should be and they wouldn't shock me if there's a change somewhere midseason, maybe due to an injury or him constantly thrown picks.

Shane

Yeah, well, first, they gotta first place schedule. They got some unknown that's wide receiver in my opinion. And third, their defense is going to be pretty decent, but I think the division itself got better. Overall now. Yeah, I don't think they don't. I'm not sure Minnesota will beat them in the division. I'm pretty sure Detroit or Chicago. Won't you think it's a two team race here?

Mark

Right.

Shane

And speaking I'm going under as well. Mark, I had 11 or 12 wins penciled off to the side.

Mark

Yeah, that's I mean, the odds are horrible, of course. But you know, I think think that 12 would be the magic number, but it wouldn't shock when you see them at 11. So I'd be I'd played safe and go with 11.

Shane

All right, Minnesota Vikings now this is another one that almost looks Eagle like, if you will, like the money is coming over this on this over eight and a half game so hard that either that's going to move up to nine to five and the odds will kind of flattened out. Are you going to get another minus like 190 or something to go over? Because right now a lot of people think Minnesota is at least a nine win team or better. What do you say you?

Mark

I do too. I went over.

Shane

Yep.

Mark

I went over. I think they are one of those teams that are going to slight improvement. You'll see it, you'll see that they're on the field to give hopefully Green Bay some type of play when they play each other.

Shane

Yep. I think they're 10 and seven this year.

Mark

Nice.

Shane

But it is Kirk Cousins? No, no. I've seen many, many, many years of Kirk Cousins.

Mark

I think that's I think that's a good line right there at eight and a half.

Shane

It is, well it is a good line. But a lot of people out there that you can say Smart Money believe that's too easy. Like they're definitely when you get minus 140. Now that's it's done on 145. Now it was minus 140. So money's continuing to come in on the over side. Although not as dramatic as it was on the Eagles yet. Well, it'll be interesting to see if they actually move that up after preseason.

Mark

Yeah.

Shane

That'd be my guess. The bears, the bears six and a half, seven wins or more?

Mark

Yes.

Shane

Minus 140, which is down from 130. Last week. Or if you think they will go under that six games or less the odds actually went more in your favor. Minus or I'm sorry, plus 115. It was only plus 105. So they're trying to say, please come to the under side.

Mark

That's right. I'm not I'm still going over. I think the current setting is six and a half. I think they get the seven.

Shane

You think the bears get the seven huh?

Mark

Yep. I do.

Shane

Well, alright, I'm finally going against you here.

Mark

All right.

Shane

I'm taking under what do you think they're the same six and 11 as they were last year?

Mark

Oh, come on. You're crazy.

Shane

I just don't know about Justin fields being able to do it.

Mark

So if you're if you're there, then that means we're probably going to be different on the next one.

Shane

Maybe probably, Detroit. The perennial basement dwellers here lately. Six and a half, though. So Vegas, or whoever set that line thought, You know what, we watched a lot of those close games last year, and they don't look as bad as their record appears. So if you think they win seven games or more, which some people are starting to go over there it was minus 105. Last week, it's now minus 110. And if you think they'll go under that, well, it went from 120 minus 120, rather than minus 110 minutes.

Mark

Great.

Shane

He says that's great. Where are you going?

Mark

I'm going under now. See that three and 13? I think I think it goes three and 14. You see you guys at tie wound up being a loss.

Shane

Okay. I think they actually get five to six wins this year.

Mark

Wow.

Shane

I do.

Mark

Well, that makes sense. Because you bet you thought we were different on the bears. Someone's got to pick up the slack. And you're thinking Detroit is going to be that team?

Shane

Yeah, I do.

Mark

In that division.

Shane

I think they beat the bears.

Mark

Oh my gosh, I can't wait for the pick six.

Shane

Remember that involves point spreads. Now it's a whole different ballgame.

Mark

Yeah, I know.

Shane

All right. No, see south the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 And for last year 11 and a half. So 12 wins or more? It was minus 130. Last week. It's now at minus 115. And you get even money if you think they win 11 games or less this year. Brady retired unretired come back still no Gronk what say you?

Mark

I going under because I don't think they're gonna be that great of a team who's Tom Brady gonna throw too when he gets in trouble because Gronk is not going to be there.

Shane

So Mike Evans don't scare you at all?

Mark

No.

Shane

Chris Godwin don't scare you at all?

Mark

Mike Evans does scares me but I don't believe Brady is going to be comfortable throwing it to him in those tight situations where he relied on Gronk.

Shane

Okay.

Mark

That's what I believe. And you'll see he'll have more picks this year than he did last year.

Shane

Okay, I actually think I think they actually go 11 and six so I went under with you.

Mark

All right.

Shane

Took the even runs. Well, I just think that overall the if you wish we could have parsed down the schedule, but we'll save that for another time. I'm with you. I don't think they were as good as they were the last couple of years. Definitely their Super Bowl year and the teams they got to play this year got better in many cases.

Mark

Yeah.

Shane

So I'm just counting on that to be the thing that shaves a couple of games off and this will be good. I still think they win the division at that record. For some reason the next team on the list has their number every year and that's New Orleans Saints. Jamin Wisner Jameis Winston is expected to come back be a quarterback over I can't even remember the name of the guy that threw the ball for like eight weeks for him.

Mark

But we'll say Billy.

Shane

Captain Kroger or something I'm not sure how to go. Seven and a half is what the smart guys thanks. So eight wins and overs minus 175. So a lot of people on that train. I'm surprised that line didn't move yet. And the under so if you think the when less than seven are less than eight gains, sorry, seven or less, you get a little juice, 140.

Mark

Yeah, I went I went with the over because over to seven and a half because I think they'll be nine and eight just like they were last year.

Shane

Man this is not even fun.

Mark

The same thing you said? Yeah. All right.

Shane

I think or they could be 10 and seven, but somewhere around there.

Mark

Yeah.

Shane

Because I think they beat these next two teams like a drum for four wins right there. Atlanta Falcons. Sorry, Steven, seven and 10 last year. Look at this. They won seven last year. Matt Ryan goes to the Colts. They bring in Marcus Mariota, which I think is a pretty decent quarterback. I mean, he he played well for the tightness and short little stints for the Raiders. Four and a half though. Five wins or more get you minus 120. Four wins or less than minus 105. What do you think?

Mark

I went with the over on this.

Shane

Yes, I did, too.

Mark

And the reason I say that is because I think there'll be at five wins. I'm not saying they're gonna go seven and 10. But I think they'll win five.

Shane

Me too.

Mark

And I'm not sure I'm not sorry, Stephen.

Shane

That's his favorite team. Those dirty birds.

Mark

That's right.

Shane

We're gonna hear all the excuses every Sunday, because I don't think you'll see him on Monday Night Football. wonder whether it is alright, Carolina Panthers five and 12 last year. Now here's another interesting one that I'm shocked when I checked this morning. That did not move five and a half. So six wins and more. Get your minus 200 Not good.

Mark

Not good at all.

Shane

Basically, you give me 100? I'll give you 50.

Mark

Yeah, that's crazy.

Shane

Then on the other side, under odds if you think they'll win five or less, it's plus 165. So five and a half people are just saying six wins. This has got to be they were five and 12. Last year. Oh, they got Baker Mayfield.

Mark

Yeah.

Shane

Mccaffrey's coming back. And yet, the line stuck.

Mark

Yeah, no.

Shane

And I hate to do this, but go ahead. You want me to go first on this one?

Mark

I'll go first.

Shane

Alright.

Mark

I went over.

Shane

Yes.

Mark

I went over because I think they're nuts. I think Mr. Mayfield is gonna have something to prove.

Shane

Now, I'll tell you what, I actually think that the Carolina Panthers will probably be a seven win team this year. That's not That's only two more wins. So it's not like I'm predicting an explosion.

Mark

Maybe Carolina and Atlanta just flipped their record.

Shane

They might. But minus 200. I would not bet this. I'm just giving you a prediction that if I had to bet one side, that's the side I'd bet but those odds I would not not worth it to me.

Mark

No, you're right. The odds are horrible to bet. But if you have to pick one.

Shane

Another one that I'd be interested see next time we look at this that 56 and a half and they move that lineup and see where that money goes to then.

Mark

Yeah, that'd be interesting when we do the preseason one.

Shane

Yes. All right NFC West the Rams 12 and five your Super Bowl champions. They think they're gonna go 10 and a half. So 11 wins or more. It was minus 110. Last week. Now it's only minus 105. And on the flip side, 10 wins or less went from minus 110 to minus 115. So more money slowly leaking overdue. They're not going to be that good this year, Paul?

Mark

I think they're, they're wrong. I'll just be polite and say they're wrong. I think they win 13 this year. Oh my goodness. They're going to be a very tough team to beat.

Shane

In a rarity here. We're going head to head.

Mark

Oh, we're really?

Shane

I actually buy it. They lost two good Offensive Tackles. Now, I don't know how much Alan Robinson has left. That's what they replaced Robert woods with?

Mark

Yeah.

Shane

I mean, Stafford's good. Don't get me wrong. They're gonna be a good team. But I don't know that they went 11. This time they won 12 Last year when everything went right.

Mark

Yeah.

Shane

I can't see everything going right this year. So go ahead. Give me the under Paul. No, I think I know probably what you're why you're saying that because let's go to the Cardinals. 11 and six, and they just totally went downhill. I think they were eight and o, at one point in the year or something along that line. It just went down so quick. So for an 11 team win or 11 Win team last year, the line is at eight and a half, nine or more wins get you minus 105 Eight and less what minus one 115.

Mark

Probably gonna be way off on this one because I go I go over that eight and a half.

Shane

I do too. We're not way off.

Mark

Okay, well, good.

Shane

I don't think they go. 11 wins. I think they're either nine or 10. I think they get shaved, and I don't think it's gonna be where they're eight and o, again, I think it'll be a win to lose one win one lose two, and then they eventually get there.

Mark

Yep, I agree.

Shane

But I like him just barely over that number, the San Francisco 49. As we alluded to this earlier, new quarterback more than likely, I don't think Garoppolo is going to be there. 10 wins last year. And they think you know what, even with all that we think they're going to be a 10 win. Maybe team lines at nine and a half. So if you'd like 10 wins or more, which evidently a lot of people do. It's minus 155. And if you like nine wins or less, it's plus 125 What say you mark?

Mark

I'm going to get the same record. So I'm going over that nine and a half. I think they'll get 10 wins again. But I think Garoppolo they'll figure out a way to keep him.

Shane

All right, well, if that happens, then I give him a chance to go 10. But in my mind, if they don't keep Garoppolo and he's not starting, right, I'm going under.

Mark

We get to do this again. So fantastic.

Shane

I think if tre land starts, pretty much all the games this year, it's going to be a big learning curve for him.

Mark

I agree.

Shane

I think defenses are going to have fun with them in the first four or five weeks anyway, and they're gonna win maybe eight games.

Mark

Yeah.

Shane

In that scenario.

Mark

Yep, maybe.

Shane

Garoppolo does go then I can see him winning 10 or more. So I reserve the right based on the QB. Here.

Mark

We got you got time we got preseason coming.

Shane

All right. Seattle Seahawks last team seven and 10. Last year, they went to five and a half for the over under if you'd like six wins or more. It's minus 140. So evidently people didn't see Russell Wilson. Is that good of a QB evidently. And under which is five wins or less at plus 115. What do you like?

Mark

I don't think anything to do with the QB I think had everything to do with their offensive line. But I don't think that changes Sonicare who you're putting back there? They're running for their lives. And I got them at under. I think they'll win five games.

Shane

Right? Yep. I have under two.

Mark

Yep. I mean, I don't think they're gonna be as bad as the Detroit Lions. But I think Seattle and the Broncos Broncos. Yeah. Same type of stuff. I know you liked the Broncos by him going there.

Shane

But I think they got the upgraded QB. Absolutely. That's a tough division.

Mark

Tough division. I think both teams offensive line needs a lot of improvement. Running for your life run for your lives.

Shane

Where we've seen that before? All right. Well, that's your NFC over under for games one next season. We'll go ahead and revisit that later on. In August, right before we get our preseason on your regular season. I'm saying after preseason is done.

Mark

Wherever you're saying.

Shane

Yeah, whatever it was. All right. Let's take a look at our we'll do this again. Even though somebody just had a bad beat on the $5 parlay ofthe week, rules of the game spent $5 pick five teams we have to win you at least $200 If we're right recap last week Mark.

Mark

Last week Shane, you went three and five I went four and five however, doesn't matter if you go four and five or one and five. It's still netted. $0. And we have both lost $25 apiece.

Shane

But you know, if we got to at least win 200 hours, we got two ways to go where we can get right in a hurry.

Mark

That's right. We still got time. And I think my time is gonna be this week.

Shane

Is it? All right, you got it. You got your stuff. Ready.

Mark

I have it ready to go. Yeah.

Shane

Who's your $5 five team parley this week?

Mark

Alright so the Cardinals played late enough. So I went ahead and put them on my ticket this time Run line minus one and a half and they're a plus 105. I went with the Orioles instead of the Oilers.

Shane

That's a good. That'll be a good move.

Mark

All right. And they did their money lineup plus 135 Little Red Sox. He I know every time I picked them, it's gonna go the other way. But I went moneyline with the Red Sox a plus 105. And then I did the Angels money line and plus 130. And then I got Seattle Mariners money line at plus 105.

Shane

So their win streak continues.

Mark

That's right. My $5 stake nets me the odds of 4560 which gives me a total potential earnings of $232.83.

Shane

Hmm, all right. Well, I got the Dodgers tonight, the lead off my $5 five team parlay on the Run line. So they're given up a run and a half. That's plus 145. When they take on the Giants. They had a pretty interesting three one run homer in the bottom of the eighth inning last night to win. The Rangers and Oakland Athletics. I like the over seven and a half for total runs that gets you plus 100 even money. Speaking of the total run line at seven and a half, that's also where the Rockies and the Brewers are at. I like over in that game to at plus 100 Or even money. I take the Atlanta Braves minus one and a half against the Angels tonight. Oddly enough, that's plus 145. I do like that. And then Boston Red Sox at home against the Blue Jays money line plus 105. Those total lives together 4820 For a total potential winnings for $5 of $246.11.

Mark

Wow. Little better than me.

Shane

All right. How about the best bet of the week we give you one of us selections that we like them most of all?

Mark

Well, let's recap what happened last week. You're still keeping it 100% four for four. That's crazy to me.

Shane

That's good to get good news because I'm sucking on my parlays

Mark

I went on we're on to four so you know 50% Which, you know, I guess it's a coin flip. This week, I'm going with the raise money line.

Shane

The raise. Okay.

Mark

They're at minus 130 right now.

Shane

So that's your best bet huh?

Mark

That's my best bet I couldn't put them in my pick five because odds wouldn't get me there to my $200 requirement.

Shane

And my best bet that I'm going to do tonight is the over in the brewers and Rockies game at seven and a half. So I need em both combined for at least eight runs.

Mark

So what happens they cancel the game?

Shane

Then my best bet becomes void.

Mark

It's a loss? No, it's not a loss.

Shane

I get my money back. Whatever it might have been that I bet. How about that?

Mark

Can I put like four or five? Question mark?

Shane

Yeah asterick. there you go 4444 with an asterisk.

Mark

All right.

Shane

That's your best bet of the week and your $5 parlay. Ladies and gentlemen, keep in mind we come to you every Friday from the Betly Sportsbook inside Southland. Casino and Hotel. Coming soon during football season expanding to a Monday show as well hopefully gonna get you all your football including the pick six to average Joe's versus the pros and maybe just maybe the high rises versus hillbillies.

Mark

Well, I hope the high rises versus the hillbillies. I can't wait for that segment and it's gonna be on another platform hopefully.

Shane

Hopefully by then. Yes, sir. You might get to see our ugly mugs made for radio or podcast in this case. All right, got anything else for the folks?

Mark

No stay try to stay cool wherever you're at and get your picks in hot like we have now.

Shane

Yeah, that's right. Especially Best Bets if you're Shane. Alright everybody we'd like to thank you for listening to the Odds Brothers podcast presented by the Betly Sportsbook. Place your bets here from inside the Southland casino or from anywhere in Arkansas southland.betly.com. Follow the Odds Brothers podcast Apple, Spotify, Amazon and Google. Keep in mind you must be 21 or older and located in Arkansas to bet we urge you to play responsibly for help quitting. You can call 800-522-4700 on behalf of Money Line mark I'm Pointspread Shane we will see you next Friday for another episode of the Odds Brothers podcast PEACE OUT!

Mark

Peace!